Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072023 230825 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.40 48.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.3 18.5 23.6 21.8 17.6 21.9 19.6 20.7 F N N N F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 106.6 101.2 96.0 89.6 79.4 78.0 72.9 72.9 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 35.0 47.0 23.0 -7.0 -2.0 -13.0 -2.0 -22.0 N N U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 57.0 52.0 50.0 44.0 46.0 47.0 51.0 N U U U VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 9.0 15.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 4.0 1.0 3.0 U U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 3.3% 1.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 70kt / 48h 1.7% 0.4% 1.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.76 AL072023 230825 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.40 48.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.