Rapid Intensification Guidance AL072023 230825 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 48.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.2 21.9 20.6 18.9 20.9 17.1 25.9 23.3 F N N N N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 101.2 96.0 96.0 89.6 85.0 79.4 79.4 79.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 42.0 37.0 27.0 18.0 -18.0 10.0 -13.0 -16.0 N N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 53.0 51.0 48.0 46.0 50.0 52.0 55.0 U U U U VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 12.0 15.0 6.0 6.0 1.0 -3.0 -6.0 N U U N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.6% 1.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 70kt / 48h 1.7% 0.4% 1.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.60 AL072023 230825 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 48.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.