Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40     66.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  34.6  31.2  24.1  22.0  20.4  17.3  17.9  N  U  U  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  97.0 104.0  86.0  41.0  41.0  66.0  66.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 122.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  65.0  42.0  64.0 119.0 106.0  80.0  89.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0   4.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.6%        3.9%        4.8%
 25kt / 24h       19.6%       30.3%       24.9%
 30kt / 24h       11.2%       13.7%       12.5%
 35kt / 24h        6.2%       13.1%        9.6%
 40kt / 24h        6.2%       13.1%        9.6%
 45kt / 36h       18.5%       35.6%       27.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.1%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h       25.7%       20.9%       23.3%
 70kt / 48h       17.0%       14.1%       15.6%
 65kt / 72h       51.3%       40.3%       45.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 AL082023 230820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40     66.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  34.6  31.2  24.1  22.0  20.4  17.3  17.9  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   3.0   0.0   4.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%