Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80     67.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  23.0  22.9  22.8  23.3  25.7  21.8  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   83.0  96.0  94.0  92.0  71.0  56.0  54.0  64.0  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  54.0  93.0  82.0  70.0 115.0 116.0 121.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  65.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0   8.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.4%        7.4%        7.9%
 25kt / 24h       33.0%       47.5%       40.2%
 30kt / 24h       18.4%       26.9%       22.7%
 35kt / 24h        9.5%       26.3%       17.9%
 40kt / 24h        9.5%       26.3%       17.9%
 45kt / 36h       28.6%       51.1%       39.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       26.1%       13.1%
 55kt / 48h       36.7%       31.6%       34.1%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       22.2%       23.5%
 65kt / 72h       60.1%       42.4%       51.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 AL082023 230821 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.80     67.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.3  23.0  22.9  22.8  23.3  25.7  21.8  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  65.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0   8.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%