Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230821 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     68.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  22.6  29.7  27.9  25.3  27.0  23.0  29.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   93.0  97.0  95.0  92.0  57.0  54.0  63.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  98.0  83.0  72.0  65.0  62.0  90.0  95.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   8.0  18.0  21.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.4%        9.7%        9.0%
 25kt / 24h       33.4%       46.9%       40.1%
 30kt / 24h       17.1%       29.2%       23.2%
 35kt / 24h        7.7%       28.8%       18.3%
 40kt / 24h        7.7%       27.7%       17.7%
 45kt / 36h       22.8%       41.3%       32.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       19.3%        9.7%
 55kt / 48h       28.4%       25.6%       27.0%
 70kt / 48h       14.5%       12.4%       13.5%
 65kt / 72h       47.2%       25.9%       36.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 AL082023 230821 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00     68.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  22.6  29.7  27.9  25.3  27.0  23.0  29.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0   0.0   8.0  18.0  21.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%