Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10     69.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  30.7  31.4  29.1  24.0  25.7  25.2  29.8  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0 103.0  97.0  85.0  54.0  58.0  64.0  59.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  82.0  63.0  38.0  82.0  85.0  78.0  94.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0   5.0  10.0  18.0  12.0  13.0  N  F  N  N  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        5.8%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h       21.2%       34.5%       27.8%
 30kt / 24h        9.8%       19.5%       14.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.8%       18.4%       11.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.8%       17.2%       10.0%
 45kt / 36h       15.8%       29.9%       22.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.6%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h       25.6%       19.7%       22.7%
 70kt / 48h        9.3%        7.2%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h       42.9%       17.7%       30.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 AL082023 230821 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10     69.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  30.7  31.4  29.1  24.0  25.7  25.2  29.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0   5.0  10.0  18.0  12.0  13.0  N  U  N  N  F VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%