Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230821 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     69.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     94.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  29.7  24.9  19.6  21.6  21.5  26.7  26.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  82.0  92.0  87.0  56.0  55.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  60.0  51.0  66.0 101.0  63.0  61.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   4.0   9.0  15.0  17.0  11.0  12.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        5.4%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h       26.8%       43.5%       35.1%
 30kt / 24h       11.8%       28.6%       20.2%
 35kt / 24h        7.9%       28.6%       18.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       25.7%       13.8%
 45kt / 36h       19.2%       41.3%       30.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       20.3%       10.2%
 55kt / 48h       33.9%       31.0%       32.5%
 70kt / 48h       10.2%       12.7%       11.5%
 65kt / 72h       41.2%       25.3%       33.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.58

 AL082023 230821 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     69.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.0  29.7  24.9  19.6  21.6  21.5  26.7  26.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   4.0   9.0  15.0  17.0  11.0  12.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%