Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     70.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  21.9  17.5  19.3  23.1  17.5  28.9  32.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   87.0  91.0  86.0  70.0  51.0  60.0  71.0  72.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  63.0  84.0  73.0  75.0  58.0  64.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  69.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0  10.0  11.0  15.0  11.0  15.0  12.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.5%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        9.5%       16.7%       13.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.2%        7.0%        6.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        6.5%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%        6.5%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h       13.4%       12.0%       12.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h       21.8%       11.9%       16.8%
 70kt / 48h       14.3%        3.3%        8.8%
 65kt / 72h       42.5%        9.2%       25.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.60

 AL082023 230822 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30     70.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  21.9  17.5  19.3  23.1  17.5  28.9  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  69.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0  10.0  11.0  15.0  11.0  15.0  12.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%