Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60     70.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  18.7  24.4  22.7  19.6  24.9  27.8  34.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  84.0  68.0  58.0  55.0  66.0  72.0  74.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  49.0  83.0  66.0  74.0  39.0  87.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   8.0   9.0  11.0  15.0  13.0  17.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        4.7%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       15.9%       31.1%       23.5%
 30kt / 24h        8.4%       16.6%       12.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%       15.4%       10.2%
 40kt / 24h        4.9%       15.3%       10.1%
 45kt / 36h       15.9%       28.9%       22.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.8%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h       26.0%       21.4%       23.7%
 70kt / 48h       10.3%        7.1%        8.7%
 65kt / 72h       38.2%       14.5%       26.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.70

 AL082023 230822 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60     70.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  18.7  24.4  22.7  19.6  24.9  27.8  34.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   8.0   9.0  11.0  15.0  13.0  17.0   9.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%