Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20     71.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  25.7  25.1  18.8  21.4  29.6  30.8  34.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  62.0  54.0  52.0  63.0  79.0  70.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  43.0  75.0  78.0  56.0  40.0  43.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0   6.0   8.0  11.0   9.0   6.0   4.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        3.9%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h       12.6%       27.2%       19.9%
 30kt / 24h        7.0%       14.0%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%       13.1%        7.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.5%       13.1%        7.8%
 45kt / 36h       13.3%       24.2%       18.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.5%        4.2%
 55kt / 48h       18.8%       15.5%       17.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.7%        4.8%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h       30.4%       10.3%       20.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 AL082023 230822 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20     71.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  25.7  25.1  18.8  21.4  29.6  30.8  34.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   5.0   6.0   8.0  11.0   9.0   6.0   4.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%