Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40     71.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  24.2  24.1  20.6  24.9  25.4  39.5  31.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  61.0  56.0  56.0  69.0  81.0  72.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  60.0  48.0  66.0  32.0  59.0  40.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  67.0  67.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   9.0   8.0  11.0  11.0  10.0   9.0   5.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        2.8%       13.3%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        6.0%        3.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        4.7%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.7%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%       12.7%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.7%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h       12.0%       10.6%       11.3%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%        2.8%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h       30.1%        8.0%       19.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 AL082023 230822 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40     71.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  24.2  24.1  20.6  24.9  25.4  39.5  31.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  67.0  67.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   9.0   8.0  11.0  11.0  10.0   9.0   5.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%