Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     71.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  26.1  20.4  18.9  28.7  29.7  34.8  37.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  56.0  57.0  61.0  78.0  79.0  71.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  43.0  72.0  55.0  60.0  33.0   4.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  11.0  13.0  11.0  10.0   4.0   5.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.5%       12.5%        8.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        5.1%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.4%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        4.4%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       10.2%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h       10.8%        8.0%        9.4%
 70kt / 48h        5.8%        2.3%        4.1%
 65kt / 72h       29.8%        7.1%       18.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 AL082023 230823 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00     71.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  26.1  20.4  18.9  28.7  29.7  34.8  37.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  11.0  13.0  11.0  10.0   4.0   5.0   1.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%