Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80     71.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  20.8  22.2  27.2  24.6  39.0  28.2  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  57.0  61.0  69.0  86.0  73.0  75.0  82.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  48.0  70.0  32.0  26.0   9.0  38.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  13.0  12.0  10.0  11.0   9.0   6.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.4%        8.6%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h       24.2%       40.2%       32.2%
 30kt / 24h       16.3%       24.1%       20.2%
 35kt / 24h       11.8%       24.1%       18.0%
 40kt / 24h        5.9%       24.1%       15.0%
 45kt / 36h       18.4%       35.6%       27.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.3%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h       13.3%       14.4%       13.9%
 70kt / 48h        6.8%        6.2%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h       21.6%       11.6%       16.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 AL082023 230823 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80     71.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  20.8  22.2  27.2  24.6  39.0  28.2  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  13.0  12.0  10.0  11.0   9.0   6.0   3.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%