Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30     71.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  23.6  29.1  28.9  32.8  39.6  32.7  22.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  59.0  73.0  85.0  73.0  76.0  82.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  51.0  39.0  38.0   4.0  29.0  66.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  12.0  11.0   9.0   6.0   9.0   2.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        4.6%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       13.7%       27.2%       20.5%
 30kt / 24h        7.7%       13.5%       10.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%       12.8%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%       12.8%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        8.1%       22.2%       15.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.0%        4.0%
 55kt / 48h        6.5%        8.1%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        3.0%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h       27.7%       10.3%       19.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 AL082023 230823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30     71.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  23.6  29.1  28.9  32.8  39.6  32.7  22.5  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  12.0  11.0   9.0   6.0   9.0   2.0   8.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%