Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     70.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  27.3  27.8  24.4  38.2  30.2  35.2  23.6  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  78.0  86.0  80.0  74.0  74.0  63.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  28.0   8.0  25.0  12.0  59.0  35.0  41.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  58.0  62.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   6.0  11.0   4.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%       10.2%        6.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.4%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.4%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%        6.4%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        4.7%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        1.1%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h       27.2%        5.6%       16.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 AL082023 230823 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40     70.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  27.3  27.8  24.4  38.2  30.2  35.2  23.6  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  60.0  58.0  62.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   6.0  11.0   4.0  11.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%