Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70     70.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  27.3  26.5  32.5  37.7  28.6  21.8  20.9  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  85.0  78.0  72.0  80.0  64.0  57.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  21.0  38.0  54.0  49.0  70.0  53.0   7.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  10.0  13.0   8.0   9.0   3.0   7.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        6.1%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.1%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%        3.5%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        2.8%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        0.7%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h       31.7%        5.3%       18.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 AL082023 230824 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70     70.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  27.3  26.5  32.5  37.7  28.6  21.8  20.9  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  10.0  13.0   8.0   9.0   3.0   7.0   5.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%