Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     70.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  31.2  38.3  31.9  33.0  19.7  28.1  12.4  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   85.0  75.0  73.0  79.0  81.0  67.0  49.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0  30.0  45.0   9.0  49.0  -7.0  35.0  12.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   6.0   7.0   8.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.6%        6.8%        8.7%
 25kt / 24h       12.6%       22.7%       17.7%
 30kt / 24h       10.7%       10.2%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h        7.4%       10.1%        8.7%
 40kt / 24h        7.4%       10.1%        8.7%
 45kt / 36h       11.3%       18.2%       14.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.3%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        8.1%        8.2%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        3.0%        3.8%
 65kt / 72h       14.6%        9.7%       12.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 AL082023 230824 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10     70.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  31.2  38.3  31.9  33.0  19.7  28.1  12.4  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   6.0   7.0   8.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%