Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30     69.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  38.3  34.0  26.9  37.6  20.7  24.8  20.9  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   77.0  73.0  76.0  78.0  77.0  70.0  43.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  34.0  40.0  13.0   4.0  50.0  10.0  37.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  66.0  61.0  63.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0   9.0   8.0  -4.0   2.0  -3.0   7.0  N  U  U  U  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        2.5%        3.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%       13.7%       10.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.5%        5.7%        5.6%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        5.4%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        5.4%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%        7.2%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.2%        5.1%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        1.5%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h       13.3%        6.1%        9.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 AL082023 230824 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30     69.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.8  38.3  34.0  26.9  37.6  20.7  24.8  20.9  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  66.0  61.0  63.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0   9.0   8.0  -4.0   2.0  -3.0   7.0  N  F  F  F  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%