Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50     68.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  36.9  31.0  29.3  22.3  22.9  15.2  17.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  77.0  80.0  81.0  75.0  55.0  44.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  41.0  42.0  17.0  46.0  32.0  26.0  86.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  12.0  10.0   1.0   9.0  -1.0   2.0   4.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.3%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%        9.8%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        3.8%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        3.3%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        3.3%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.7%        7.0%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        5.4%        5.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        1.2%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h       24.5%        7.0%       15.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 AL082023 230825 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50     68.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  36.9  31.0  29.3  22.3  22.9  15.2  17.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  12.0  10.0   1.0   9.0  -1.0   2.0   4.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%