Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230825 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60     68.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  29.4  34.3  32.4  19.8  20.9  16.9  14.3  U  N  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  77.0  80.0  81.0  80.0  46.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  46.0  25.0  23.0  30.0   5.0  50.0  13.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   8.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        1.1%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%        7.3%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        2.5%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.9%        6.1%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.8%        4.6%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        1.1%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h       23.4%        6.8%       15.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 AL082023 230825 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60     68.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  29.4  34.3  32.4  19.8  20.9  16.9  14.3  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  63.0  61.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   8.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%