Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     68.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  32.0  32.0  18.5  23.7  13.6  13.3  11.6  N  U  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  71.0  75.0  79.0  72.0  38.0  49.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  45.0   5.0  40.0  30.0   5.0  36.0  17.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   0.0   5.0   7.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        5.6%        3.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        1.8%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%        4.2%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        4.3%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        0.9%        2.1%
 65kt / 72h       34.1%        8.2%       21.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 AL082023 230825 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00     68.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  32.0  32.0  18.5  23.7  13.6  13.3  11.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   0.0   5.0   7.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%