Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     67.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  35.4  22.1  22.1  17.6  20.8  14.0  15.0  U  U  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  68.0  76.0  80.0  61.0  38.0  50.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  -6.0  35.0  64.0  -4.0  33.0  17.0   9.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  55.0  60.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   9.0  13.0   7.0   2.0   7.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        6.6%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        2.2%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%        5.0%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        4.8%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        1.0%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h       25.2%        6.6%       15.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.82

 AL082023 230825 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80     67.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.8  35.4  22.1  22.1  17.6  20.8  14.0  15.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  62.0  64.0  61.0  61.0  55.0  60.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   9.0  13.0   7.0   2.0   7.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%