Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60     66.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  19.9  21.5  16.4  15.3  15.1  14.5  16.5  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  70.0  77.0  69.0  41.0  51.0  51.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3  97.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  45.0   7.0  -3.0  34.0   6.0   8.0  14.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  64.0  59.0  63.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   0.0   3.0   7.0   1.0  -4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.5%       11.4%       13.0%
 25kt / 24h       27.9%       45.5%       36.7%
 30kt / 24h       23.3%       32.3%       27.8%
 35kt / 24h       20.3%       32.3%       26.3%
 40kt / 24h       10.0%       32.3%       21.2%
 45kt / 36h       28.1%       42.5%       35.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.7%       11.4%
 55kt / 48h       22.9%       29.4%       26.2%
 70kt / 48h       10.2%       12.8%       11.5%
 65kt / 72h       17.9%       21.0%       19.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.82

 AL082023 230826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60     66.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  19.9  21.5  16.4  15.3  15.1  14.5  16.5  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  64.0  59.0  63.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   0.0   3.0   7.0   1.0  -4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%