Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20     66.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  21.0  13.5  10.8  12.8  15.8   9.9  19.1  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  68.0  55.0  44.0  44.0  47.0  32.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  94.6  77.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0   7.0  -4.0   5.0  22.0  12.0   0.0  -8.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  60.0  63.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0   3.0  -5.0   8.0   1.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       43.7%       15.3%       29.5%
 25kt / 24h       42.2%       47.2%       44.7%
 30kt / 24h       42.2%       37.5%       39.8%
 35kt / 24h       38.5%       37.5%       38.0%
 40kt / 24h       33.6%       37.5%       35.5%
 45kt / 36h       42.6%       33.9%       38.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       15.7%        7.9%
 55kt / 48h       23.8%       23.7%       23.8%
 70kt / 48h       14.3%        8.6%       11.4%
 65kt / 72h       13.1%       10.8%       12.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 AL082023 230826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20     66.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  21.0  13.5  10.8  12.8  15.8   9.9  19.1  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  60.0  63.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  -3.0   0.0   3.0   3.0  -5.0   8.0   1.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%