Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     67.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  13.0  12.4  15.0  17.6  13.4  17.5  15.2  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  55.0  40.0  37.0  46.0  53.0  26.0  18.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  89.3  84.6  69.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   8.0   2.0   9.0 -21.0  41.0   6.0  12.0  U  U  U  U VU  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  63.0  62.0  56.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   3.0   8.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       71.1%       35.5%       53.3%
 25kt / 24h       68.5%       64.4%       66.5%
 30kt / 24h       68.5%       61.9%       65.2%
 35kt / 24h       66.7%       61.9%       64.3%
 40kt / 24h       66.7%       61.9%       64.3%
 45kt / 36h       51.5%       40.5%       46.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       21.9%       11.0%
 55kt / 48h       23.9%       29.2%       26.6%
 70kt / 48h       12.6%        9.8%       11.2%
 65kt / 72h        7.8%        9.1%        8.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 AL082023 230826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     67.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  13.0  12.4  15.0  17.6  13.4  17.5  15.2  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  63.0  62.0  56.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   3.0   8.0   6.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%