Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90     67.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.1  13.5  16.2  13.5  19.2  10.9  15.7  17.7  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  37.0  36.0  43.0  45.0  48.0  26.0  16.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  89.3  84.6  69.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  20.0  23.0  16.0  14.0  34.0  23.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  62.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   0.0  11.0   8.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       49.8%       22.8%       36.3%
 25kt / 24h       54.9%       48.9%       51.9%
 30kt / 24h       54.9%       44.0%       49.4%
 35kt / 24h       54.9%       44.0%       49.4%
 40kt / 24h       54.9%       44.0%       49.4%
 45kt / 36h       40.3%       22.1%       31.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.7%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h       20.8%       21.2%       21.0%
 70kt / 48h        9.0%        4.6%        6.8%
 65kt / 72h        8.4%        5.3%        6.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.96

 AL082023 230827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90     67.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.1  13.5  16.2  13.5  19.2  10.9  15.7  17.7  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  62.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   0.0  11.0   8.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%