Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40     68.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  14.1  13.6  15.0  11.8  15.5  12.4  16.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  36.0  44.0  50.0  51.0  34.0  21.0  13.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  82.3  75.7  63.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  19.0  15.0  19.0  26.0  24.0   8.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  64.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       29.3%       19.6%       24.4%
 25kt / 24h       41.4%       45.3%       43.3%
 30kt / 24h       41.4%       40.7%       41.1%
 35kt / 24h       41.4%       40.7%       41.1%
 40kt / 24h       41.4%       40.7%       41.1%
 45kt / 36h       35.7%       20.2%       27.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.8%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h       18.6%       20.0%       19.3%
 70kt / 48h        7.6%        3.7%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h        7.6%        4.6%        6.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 AL082023 230827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40     68.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  14.1  13.6  15.0  11.8  15.5  12.4  16.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  64.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%