Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80     69.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  12.1  13.3  16.6  11.4  10.6  14.3  11.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  52.0  56.0  47.0  53.0  30.0  21.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  79.3  72.3  67.9  55.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0  11.0  14.0  11.0  41.0  27.0   5.0 -25.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  61.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   0.0  -5.0   8.0   5.0   8.0  -4.0  N  N  N  F  U  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       43.5%       21.8%       32.6%
 25kt / 24h       38.4%       43.7%       41.1%
 30kt / 24h       38.4%       39.8%       39.1%
 35kt / 24h       33.7%       39.8%       36.8%
 40kt / 24h       33.1%       39.8%       36.4%
 45kt / 36h       53.4%       27.2%       40.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.7%        6.9%
 55kt / 48h       19.8%       16.3%       18.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 AL082023 230827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80     69.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  12.1  13.3  16.6  11.4  10.6  14.3  11.2  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  60.0  61.0  65.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   0.0  -5.0   8.0   5.0   8.0  -4.0  N  N  N  U  F  N  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%