Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230827 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.70     69.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.3  15.6  14.4   9.4  14.1  11.7  16.5  15.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  51.0  45.0  48.0  35.0  24.0  14.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  67.3  60.7  48.5  44.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0 -24.0  -6.0   8.0  15.0  31.0  24.0   1.0  U VU  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0  -3.0   7.0   4.0   4.0   6.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.9%       32.3%       46.1%
 25kt / 24h       51.2%       54.4%       52.8%
 30kt / 24h       51.2%       52.6%       51.9%
 35kt / 24h       50.0%       52.6%       51.3%
 40kt / 24h       42.9%       52.6%       47.7%
 45kt / 36h       63.9%       38.2%       51.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       24.0%       12.0%
 55kt / 48h       17.2%       14.8%       16.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 AL082023 230827 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.70     69.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.3  15.6  14.4   9.4  14.1  11.7  16.5  15.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  55.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0  -3.0   7.0   4.0   4.0   6.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%