Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00     70.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  15.9  11.2  13.3   9.2  15.2  13.4  26.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  47.0  45.0  48.0  29.0  20.0  13.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  79.3  72.3  57.4  53.5  49.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0  -9.0  17.0  29.0  14.0  -4.0 -32.0  20.0  U  U  U  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  70.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   7.0   5.0   2.0  11.0   1.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.7%       10.0%       11.9%
 25kt / 24h       19.4%       28.9%       24.2%
 30kt / 24h       19.4%       23.5%       21.5%
 35kt / 24h       16.0%       23.5%       19.8%
 40kt / 24h       16.0%       23.5%       19.8%
 45kt / 36h       34.4%       11.8%       23.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%        6.7%        7.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.78

 AL082023 230828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00     70.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  15.9  11.2  13.3   9.2  15.2  13.4  26.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  70.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   7.0   5.0   2.0  11.0   1.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%