Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80     70.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  11.3  12.7  17.8  14.2  17.1  13.7  34.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  47.0  46.0  36.0  24.0  12.0  10.0  13.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  64.3  64.3  48.6  36.6  34.8  27.7  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0  31.0  32.0  32.0  38.0  23.0   2.0  20.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  66.0  65.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   8.0   5.0   2.0   7.0   3.0  13.0  14.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       55.7%       28.7%       42.2%
 25kt / 24h       39.9%       43.9%       41.9%
 30kt / 24h       39.9%       39.7%       39.8%
 35kt / 24h       36.3%       39.7%       38.0%
 40kt / 24h       36.3%       39.4%       37.9%
 45kt / 36h       69.3%       31.4%       50.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 AL082023 230828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80     70.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  11.3  12.7  17.8  14.2  17.1  13.7  34.6  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  66.0  65.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   8.0   5.0   2.0   7.0   3.0  13.0  14.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%