Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.50     70.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.8  12.1  16.5  11.2  18.0  10.9  13.7  38.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  46.0  37.0  26.0  21.0  18.0  10.0   2.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  49.3  42.3  27.4  23.5  16.2  11.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  31.0  41.0  33.0  38.0  -9.0  35.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   6.0   2.0  17.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       55.8%       20.4%       38.1%
 25kt / 24h       27.9%       25.9%       26.9%
 30kt / 24h       27.9%       20.2%       24.1%
 35kt / 24h       24.8%       20.2%       22.5%
 40kt / 24h       24.8%       20.2%       22.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 AL082023 230828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.50     70.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.8  12.1  16.5  11.2  18.0  10.9  13.7  38.2  U  U  N  U  N  U  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  65.0  65.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   6.0   2.0  17.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%