Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082023 230828 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.20 71.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 76.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.5 17.9 12.2 16.2 16.0 10.8 28.8 51.1 F F F F F F N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 47.0 32.0 26.0 24.0 12.0 10.0 20.0 1.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 39.3 32.3 32.3 23.6 11.6 8.0 2.7 -17.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 43.0 26.0 60.0 40.0 -16.0 15.0 112.0 U N U N N U U F Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 62.0 63.0 62.0 64.0 67.0 62.0 44.0 U N N N N N N VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 23.0 1.0 30.0 N N N N N VU N VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 44.3% 15.9% 30.1% 25kt / 24h 17.9% 16.1% 17.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.20 AL082023 230828 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.20 71.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.5 17.9 12.2 16.2 16.0 10.8 28.8 51.1 U N U U U U N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 62.0 63.0 62.0 64.0 67.0 62.0 44.0 F N N N N N N VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 23.0 1.0 30.0 N N N N N VF N VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.3% 0.7%