Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00     71.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  12.1  13.5  14.8  12.8  19.7  32.2  58.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  27.0  24.0  20.0  17.0  10.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         34.3  27.3  18.6  12.4   8.5   4.8  -4.0 -24.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  24.0  38.0  15.0 -22.0 -22.0  25.0  85.0  N  U  N  U VU VU  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  65.0  67.0  54.0  40.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   6.0   6.0   4.0  24.0   8.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.9%        2.6%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 AL082023 230829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00     71.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8  12.1  13.5  14.8  12.8  19.7  32.2  58.5  U  U  U  U  U  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  65.0  67.0  54.0  40.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   6.0   6.0   4.0  24.0   8.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%