Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082023 230829 06UTC Storm Located at : 29.80 71.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 73.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 51.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 13.5 13.9 16.7 12.9 28.5 27.4 46.4 F F F F F N N VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 25.0 20.0 14.0 12.0 18.0 13.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 37.3 28.6 22.4 16.6 13.0 7.7 -0.4 -49.2 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 27.0 40.0 11.0 -31.0 -48.0 71.0 85.0 U U N U VU VU N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 60.0 61.0 63.0 66.0 63.0 47.0 41.0 N N N N N N VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 8.0 4.0 0.0 12.0 4.0 8.0 28.0 N U N N U N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.6% 1.7% 2.2% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.9% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.74 AL082023 230829 06UTC Storm Located at : 29.80 71.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 120. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 120.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.2 13.5 13.9 16.7 12.9 28.5 27.4 46.4 U U U N U N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 60.0 61.0 63.0 66.0 63.0 47.0 41.0 N N N N N N VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 8.0 4.0 0.0 12.0 4.0 8.0 28.0 N F N N F N F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 3.4% 1.7%