Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082023 230829 12UTC Storm Located at : 30.40 70.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 31.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.4 15.2 17.4 13.5 23.3 31.3 33.7 88.2 F F F F N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 21.0 15.0 18.0 13.0 16.0 9.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 33.6 27.4 27.4 23.5 18.0 11.0 3.0 -58.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 30.0 -10.0 -17.0 -65.0 -24.0 46.0 64.0 81.0 N U U VU VU N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 58.0 61.0 64.0 64.0 56.0 39.0 32.0 U U N N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 5.0 2.0 4.0 27.0 29.0 -23.0 -6.0 N N N N VU VU VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.0% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.56 AL082023 230829 12UTC Storm Located at : 30.40 70.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.4 15.2 17.4 13.5 23.3 31.3 33.7 88.2 U U N U N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 58.0 61.0 64.0 64.0 56.0 39.0 32.0 F F N N N F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 5.0 2.0 4.0 27.0 29.0 -23.0 -6.0 N N N N VF VF VU U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 5.0% 2.5%