Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.10     70.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  15.5  13.3  13.8  32.0  26.7  31.7  69.5  F  F  F  F  U  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  16.0  16.0  17.0  16.0   9.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.7  32.4  28.5  23.0  21.2  16.0  -9.5 -42.7  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0 -13.0 -48.0 -29.0 -37.0  88.0  31.0  69.0  U  U VU VU VU  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  58.0  61.0  63.0  64.0  54.0  42.0  35.0  U  U  N  N  N  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   3.0  15.0  11.0  19.0 -39.0 -27.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.0%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 AL082023 230829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.10     70.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.