Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90     69.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  15.9  18.7  28.5  31.8  24.0  29.6  70.6  F  F  N  N  U  N  N VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  18.0  16.0  13.0  15.0   9.0   7.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         42.4  38.5  33.0  33.0  27.7  26.0  13.6 -31.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0 -17.0 -46.0 -17.0  30.0  10.0  60.0  38.0  U  U VU  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  61.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  59.0  53.0  44.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0  18.0  21.0  11.0 -11.0 -40.0-114.0  N  N VU VU  U  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.24

 AL082023 230830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90     69.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.