Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082023 230830 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.60 68.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 63.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.4 20.2 30.5 32.9 30.9 23.3 41.3 46.4 F N N U U N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 12.0 14.0 12.0 15.0 8.0 6.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 43.5 43.5 39.8 36.2 32.7 29.3 17.2 -14.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 -50.0 -5.0 -15.0 57.0 48.0 53.0 124.0 U VU U U N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 62.0 64.0 65.0 65.0 59.0 50.0 45.0 U N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 17.0 20.0 13.0 21.0 -11.0 -53.0 -37.0 N U VU U VU F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.12 AL082023 230830 06UTC Storm Located at : 32.60 68.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95.