Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082023 230830 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.30 67.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 20.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.8 31.9 32.4 33.6 24.2 38.5 69.9 78.4 N U U U N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 13.0 11.0 14.0 11.0 11.0 7.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 38.0 39.8 36.2 36.2 32.7 27.7 23.0 -14.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -25.0 3.0 -28.0 38.0 54.0 38.0 52.0 34.0 VU U VU N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 64.0 64.0 65.0 60.0 53.0 38.0 32.0 N N N N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 14.0 8.0 19.0 -3.0 7.0 -6.0 -48.0 U U U VU N N F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.94 AL082023 230830 12UTC Storm Located at : 33.30 67.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95.