Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082023 230830 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.90 66.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 72.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 29.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.5 31.0 32.0 30.6 26.2 46.0 68.8 71.6 N U U U N VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 11.0 13.0 13.0 9.0 10.0 7.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 44.8 44.8 41.2 41.2 36.0 31.1 20.8 -9.2 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -5.0 -39.0 17.0 43.0 33.0 39.0 87.0 59.0 U VU U N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 63.0 64.0 65.0 63.0 55.0 44.0 38.0 N N N N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 13.0 19.0 29.0 -1.0 -15.0 7.0 -18.0 U U VU VU N VF N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.0% 0.7% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.96 AL082023 230830 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.90 66.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.