Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082023 230831 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.40 65.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 74.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 23.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.0 33.0 31.2 22.4 34.6 51.0 62.2 55.0 U U U N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 11.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 44.8 41.2 41.2 37.7 32.7 29.6 5.9 -9.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -42.0 -2.0 60.0 33.0 35.0 81.0 113.0 88.0 VU U N N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 64.0 64.0 63.0 58.0 49.0 40.0 38.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 26.0 29.0 -3.0 0.0 -29.0 0.0 -5.0 N VU VU N N VF N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.84 AL082023 230831 00UTC Storm Located at : 34.40 65.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.