Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.70     63.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  32.4  26.6  28.9  46.5  54.6  64.1  58.2  U  U  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  13.0   8.0  12.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.2  46.2  42.7  41.0  36.1  10.9  -4.2  -8.8  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  51.0  49.0  83.0  54.0  80.0 156.0  81.0  U  N  N  N  N  N VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  54.0  41.0  36.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  25.0  21.0  -1.0  -3.0 -27.0 -21.0  -7.0 -10.0 VU VU  N  N VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.4%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        0.7%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.74

 AL082023 230831 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.70     63.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.