Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082023 230831 18UTC Storm Located at : 35.50 61.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.4 30.2 38.0 50.1 44.3 47.8 32.9 22.7 N N U VU VU VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 9.0 9.0 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 47.7 46.0 42.7 39.6 15.9 -10.4 -18.2 -21.9 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 47.0 62.0 65.0 113.0 91.0 78.0 55.0 N N N N F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 60.0 60.0 54.0 46.0 42.0 46.0 52.0 N N N U VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 -2.0 -5.0 -42.0 -50.0 -39.0 -25.0 -3.0 N N F VF VF VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 0.4% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.46 AL082023 230831 18UTC Storm Located at : 35.50 61.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.