Rapid Intensification Guidance AL082023 230901 12UTC Storm Located at : 38.20 56.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 139.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 56.2 56.9 49.5 49.7 51.3 38.0 38.7 29.3 VU VU VU VU VU U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 35.5 14.2 3.4 2.3 -6.1 -11.6 -15.5 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 69.0 94.0 72.0 86.0 127.0 71.0 44.0 69.0 N F N F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 49.0 46.0 41.0 43.0 45.0 49.0 46.0 U U VU VU VU VU U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -44.0 -51.0 -40.0 -37.0 -43.0 -35.0 -28.0 -12.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.02 AL082023 230901 12UTC Storm Located at : 38.20 56.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.