Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL082023 230901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.00     54.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        56.5  49.4  53.9  54.9  43.8  39.0  30.8  27.8 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.5   9.2  -3.3  -0.4  -8.2 -15.7 -18.5 -18.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  72.0  89.0 110.0  94.0  67.0  53.0  26.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  43.0  40.0  39.0  40.0  48.0  49.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -39.0 -33.0 -33.0 -36.0 -34.0 -18.0 -21.0  -9.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.94

 AL082023 230901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.00     54.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.