Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL092023 230823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.80    103.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  29.6  23.9  19.6  19.6  19.6  19.6  19.6  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  10.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 119.4 117.4  75.5  75.5  75.5  75.5  75.5  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0  24.0  13.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  64.0  61.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   7.0   8.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 AL092023 230823 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.80    103.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  29.6  23.9  19.6  19.6  19.6  19.6  19.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  64.0  61.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   7.0   8.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%