Rapid Intensification Guidance AL112023 230829 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.00 51.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 24.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.30 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.5 14.0 15.5 14.9 21.6 40.0 45.2 31.5 F F F F N U VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 25.0 24.0 22.0 21.0 16.0 15.0 12.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 125.1 127.3 127.3 127.3 122.9 108.5 92.7 72.9 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 -33.0 -27.0 -7.0 -32.0 1.0 32.0 43.0 U VU VU U VU U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 61.0 61.0 59.0 55.0 53.0 44.0 28.0 N N N U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 -8.0 5.0 9.0 -23.0 N N N N F N U VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.9% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 1.0% 12.8% 6.9% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 5.6% 3.2% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 4.9% 2.6% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 4.9% 2.5% 45kt / 36h 1.7% 18.2% 9.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 6.7% 3.3% 55kt / 48h 1.3% 3.1% 2.2% 70kt / 48h 0.6% 2.3% 1.4% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.06 AL112023 230829 12UTC Storm Located at : 28.00 51.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.5 14.0 15.5 14.9 21.6 40.0 45.2 31.5 U U U U N F VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 61.0 61.0 59.0 55.0 53.0 44.0 28.0 N N N F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 -8.0 5.0 9.0 -23.0 N N N N U N F VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%