Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112023 230829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00     51.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  12.7  10.8  12.9  23.6  33.8  41.5  26.8  F  F  F  F  N  U VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  24.0  22.0  21.0  19.0  15.0  16.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 125.1 127.3 127.3 122.9 118.6 108.5  91.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0 -23.0   6.0 -16.0   4.0  13.0  11.0  37.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  57.0  54.0  52.0  51.0  55.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   1.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0 -17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%       10.6%        5.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        4.3%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.8%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.8%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       13.5%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.4%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        3.2%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        2.2%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        2.3%        1.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 AL112023 230829 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00     51.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  12.7  10.8  12.9  23.6  33.8  41.5  26.8  U  U  U  U  N  F VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  57.0  54.0  52.0  51.0  55.0  39.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   1.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   2.0 -17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%