Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL112023 230830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10     52.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  10.8  12.0  16.4  28.5  42.1  39.0  39.0  F  F  F  F  N VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  23.0  21.0  20.0  15.0  15.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 127.3 127.3 127.3 118.6 112.4 103.0 103.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0 -15.0 -29.0 -22.0 -39.0 -27.0  19.0  19.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  52.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%       10.5%        5.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.0%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        3.6%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.6%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%       10.4%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.9%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 AL112023 230830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10     52.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  10.8  12.0  16.4  28.5  42.1  39.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  N VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  54.0  54.0  51.0  52.0  60.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%